Brazil presidential election polls
Presidential election Held 25 Oct 2026.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads the polling average with 41.1%, 2.5 points ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro.
Average
Updated 34 minutes ago
Lula PTLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva
41.1
+1.6
F. Bolsonaro PLFlávio Bolsonaro
38.5
+5.2
Cury AvanteAugusto Cury
4.1
−1.6
Santos MissionRenan Santos
4.0
−0.5
Caiado PSDRonaldo Caiado
3.1
−0.8
Zema NovoRomeu Zema
1.1
−1.0
Trend
Lula PTF. Bolsonaro PLCury AvanteSantos MissionCaiado PSDZema Novo
Stances
Lula PTF. Bolsonaro PLCury AvanteSantos MissionCaiado PSDZema Novo
Immigration3 unplaced
ExpandRestrictRemigration
Economy
Free marketState-directed
Abortion2 unplaced
Broad accessProtect unborn life
Marriage & family2 unplaced
Individual choiceTraditional
National culture1 unplaced
CosmopolitanPreserve heritage
Technology
Light-touchRein in Big Tech
Scores and reasons written by AI. Methodology
Why these scores
Immigration
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: 3 of 10 Rejoined UN migration compact in 2023; keeps humanitarian visas and Venezuelan reception under Operação Acolhida
- Flávio Bolsonaro: 4.5 of 10 Plan deploys armed forces on borders against crime; father quit UN migration compact but kept Venezuelan reception
- Ronaldo Caiado: 4 of 10 Plan would 'organise migration with documentation, integration, security'; no cut in numbers proposed
Economy
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: 6.5 of 10 Income-tax exemption to R$5,000 funded by minimum tax on top earners; Novo PAC, state-led industrial policy
- Flávio Bolsonaro: 2.5 of 10 Plan resumes privatisation programme and cuts ten ministries, but pledges Bolsa Família and pension rises
- Augusto Cury: 4 of 10 Near-zero deficit, cut 50,000 commissioned posts, credit for ten million microfirms, 40-50% betting tax
- Renan Santos: 3 of 10 R$1.1 trillion fiscal-adjustment PEC de-indexing benefits, but state-led Northeast industrialisation in strategic sectors
- Ronaldo Caiado: 3.5 of 10 No new taxes, spending capped below growth; keeps transfer programmes and Petrobras state-owned
- Romeu Zema: 1 of 10 Privatise all state companies incl. Petrobras, Banco do Brasil, Correios; pension reform, alternative to CLT
Christian identity
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: 2.5 of 10 Defends a secular state; courts evangelical voters but proposes no religious role in law
- Flávio Bolsonaro: 7 of 10 Pledged to decree 'Jesus Christ the Lord of Brazil'; frames the election as 'spiritual war'
- Augusto Cury: 3.5 of 10 Presents himself as Christian but publicly defends keeping Brazil's state secular
- Renan Santos: 5.5 of 10 Missão principles defend 'Judeo-Christian classical values'; Catholic convert who attacked Queermuseu for blasphemy
- Ronaldo Caiado: 4 of 10 Plan: state will be secular, respect all beliefs, privilege none; Catholic conservative personally
- Romeu Zema: 5.5 of 10 Pre-campaign agenda promoted 'Christian values', though Novo platform focuses on economics
Abortion
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: 5 of 10 Says he opposes abortion but keeps legal-case access; called bill equating late abortion with homicide 'insanity'
- Flávio Bolsonaro: 8 of 10 Opposes any legalisation; his PL party authored bill treating abortion after 22 weeks as homicide
- Ronaldo Caiado: 7.5 of 10 Plan silent; long-standing opponent of legalisation who backs Brazil's restrictive current law
- Romeu Zema: 7.5 of 10 Opposes legalising abortion; chose Eduardo Girão, the Senate's leading anti-abortion campaigner, as running mate
Marriage & family
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: 2.5 of 10 Created a national LGBTQIA+ rights secretariat; defends same-sex marriage, legal since 2013 judicial ruling
- Flávio Bolsonaro: 7 of 10 Bolsonarist opposition to 'gender ideology' in schools; said 'the normal is to be heterosexual'
- Ronaldo Caiado: 5 of 10 Plan silent on marriage and gender; backs first-thousand-days and early-childhood programmes
- Romeu Zema: 5.5 of 10 Plan deposits R$1,000 for every newborn; campaigns on 'Christian values', no gender-liberal measures
National culture
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: 3 of 10 Restored Ministry of Culture and Rouanet funding with focus on Afro-Brazilian, indigenous and regional diversity
- Flávio Bolsonaro: 6.5 of 10 Continuity candidate for father, whose government abolished the Culture Ministry and capped Rouanet arts funding
- Renan Santos: 6.5 of 10 'Flag, barracks and school' nationalism; party principles include econationalism and defending Western heritage
- Ronaldo Caiado: 4 of 10 Plan treats culture as national identity, funds Afro-Brazilian and indigenous history and heritage
- Romeu Zema: 5 of 10 'Brazil first' slogan; campaign centres on economics, no heritage or language programme found
Subsidiarity
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: 3.5 of 10 Public-security PEC widens federal role over state police; tax reform replaces state ICMS with shared IBS
- Flávio Bolsonaro: 5.5 of 10 Plan cuts ten ministries; father's 'more Brazil, less Brasília' pact shifted revenue to states
- Augusto Cury: 5 of 10 Proposes semi-presidentialism and a municipal preventive police force; no plan to shift powers between levels
- Renan Santos: 3.5 of 10 Livro Amarelo merges deficit municipalities, possibly states; wants new constitution and strong central crime war
- Ronaldo Caiado: 5.5 of 10 Plan pledges to 'decentralise execution' to states and consortia, but puts security under the Presidency
- Romeu Zema: 6.5 of 10 As governor founded Cossud South-Southeast consortium, arguing those states pay Brasília more than they receive
Technology
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: 7 of 10 Signed ECA Digital child-safety law; 2026 plan pledges further platform regulation, algorithmic transparency centre
- Flávio Bolsonaro: 3 of 10 Plan wants AI law protecting 'freedom to create and innovate'; calls online speech rules government censorship
- Augusto Cury: 4.5 of 10 Proposes AI and robotics ministry and an AI law balancing innovation and ethics; no platform-rules stance
- Renan Santos: 2.5 of 10 Self-described techno-optimist; AI framework focused on promotion and a national AI lab, no risk rules
- Ronaldo Caiado: 5.5 of 10 Plan: platform responsibility law, full child online protection, preserve Marco Civil; risk-based AI law
- Romeu Zema: 2.5 of 10 Rejects 'broad, anticipatory' AI regulation; would bar platforms from removing profiles or moderating opinions
Second round
F. Bolsonaro PL 46.845.5 Lula PT
102 polls, latest 24 Oct
Lula PT 44.641.6 Caiado PSD
52 polls, latest 3 Oct
Lula PT 45.938.9 Zema Novo
50 polls, latest 3 Oct
Lula PT 45.535.9 Santos Mission
48 polls, latest 3 Oct
Lula PT 43.539.2 Cury Avante
36 polls, latest 3 Oct
Lula PT 44.638.1 Ratinho PSD
12 polls, latest 9 Mar