Iceland opinion polls
Parliamentary election By 2 Dec 2028, in 2 years.
Social Democratic Alliance leads the polling average with 27.4%, 6.4 points ahead of Independence Party.
Average
Updated 34 minutes ago
SSocial Democratic Alliance
27.4
−1.2
DIndependence Party
21.0
+2.0
BProgressive Party
6.5
+0.2
VLeft-Green Movement
4.6
+0.4
JSocialist Party of Iceland
3.3
+0.6
Trend
SDMCBF
Stances
SDMCBF
Immigration
ExpandRestrictRemigration
Economy
Free marketState-directed
Christian identity3 unplaced
Abortion
Broad accessProtect unborn life
Marriage & family1 unplaced
Individual choiceTraditional
National culture
CosmopolitanPreserve heritage
Technology1 unplaced
Light-touchRein in Big Tech
Scores and reasons written by AI. Methodology
Why these scores
Immigration
- Social Democratic Alliance: 4 of 10 Platform: humane asylum, faster removal of rejected applicants; its government is tightening residence and family-reunification rules
- Independence Party: 5.5 of 10 2025 congress: align asylum rules with neighbours, quick removal of rejected applicants, strip protection from criminals
- Centre Party: 7 of 10 Platform: five-year stop on granting asylum, none for irregular arrivals, fewer EEA workers, question Schengen
- Viðreisn: 4.5 of 10 Its justice minister's 2026 bill lengthens permanent-residence wait to six years; party backs easier non-EEA work permits
- Progressive Party: 4.5 of 10 Backed the 2024 asylum-law tightening in the previous coalition; platform rejects discrimination by nationality
- People's Party: 5.5 of 10 2025 congress: align asylum law with Nordic neighbours, stronger border control; in cabinet behind 2026 residence-permit tightening
Economy
- Social Democratic Alliance: 6 of 10 Shift tax onto capital, argues for a wealth tax; raised fishing fees in 2025; balanced 2027 budget
- Independence Party: 2.5 of 10 2025 congress: single income-tax bracket, abolish inheritance and bank taxes, cut VAT, privately run hospital
- Centre Party: 3.5 of 10 Lower taxes, abolish inheritance tax, reject green taxes; keep Landsbankinn state-owned, hand out Arion Bank shares
- Viðreisn: 4 of 10 Rules out income-tax rises on workers and small firms, balanced budget; its minister raised fishing fees
- Progressive Party: 4.5 of 10 Platform: mixed market economy of private and cooperative firms, tiered income tax, balanced budget
- People's Party: 6.5 of 10 Turn Landsbankinn into a community bank, ban indexed consumer loans, full-price resource fees, tax-free minimum income
Christian identity
- Social Democratic Alliance: 2 of 10 Platform calls for equal treatment of all religious and life-stance groups by the state
- Independence Party: 5 of 10 2025 congress: 'Christianity is the foundation of Icelandic culture'; keep the constitutional National Church clause
- Viðreisn: 1.5 of 10 Wants constitutional change bringing full separation of church and state
Abortion
- Social Democratic Alliance: 1 of 10 Supported the 2019 law allowing abortion on request up to week 22
- Independence Party: 3 of 10 MPs split on the 2019 22-week law, then-leader Bjarni Benediktsson voted against; no repeal proposed
- Centre Party: 4.5 of 10 Eight of its nine MPs voted against the 2019 law allowing on-request abortion to week 22, one abstained
- Viðreisn: 1 of 10 Supported the 2019 law allowing abortion on request up to week 22
- Progressive Party: 2 of 10 All eight of its MPs voted for the 2019 law allowing abortion on request to week 22
- People's Party: 4 of 10 Both its MPs, leader Inga Sæland included, voted against the 2019 22-week law; no change sought since
Marriage & family
- Social Democratic Alliance: 1.5 of 10 Platform: Iceland should lead on LGBT rights, shorter waits for trans care, queer education in schools
- Independence Party: 3.5 of 10 2025 congress pledges to defend LGBT rights and expand parental leave to support having children
- Centre Party: 5.5 of 10 Rejects gender 'propaganda' to children in schools; leader opposed the 2019 self-ID law, later dropped objection
- Viðreisn: 1.5 of 10 Liberal party with dedicated LGBT policy; supports existing gender self-determination and marriage laws
- Progressive Party: 4 of 10 Platform names the family a core value; pushes 18-month parental leave and children's welfare law
National culture
- Social Democratic Alliance: 2.5 of 10 Pledges Icelandic teaching for newcomers and opposes 'exclusionary nationalism'; civic, inclusive framing
- Independence Party: 5 of 10 Wants reception schools with intensive Icelandic for foreign-origin children; civic integration demands
- Centre Party: 7 of 10 Icelandic first in public bodies, foreign languages limited in public sector; defend national culture against globalisation
- Viðreisn: 2.5 of 10 Calls diversity a benefit, Iceland 'neither wide open nor fully closed'; Icelandic courses for newcomers
- Progressive Party: 5 of 10 Platform pledges to defend Iceland's 'cultural independence' alongside political and economic independence
- People's Party: 5 of 10 Wants compulsory Icelandic classes for immigrant children and adults
Subsidiarity
- Social Democratic Alliance: 3 of 10 Aims for full EU membership and the euro; led the government that held the 2026 accession referendum
- Independence Party: 6.5 of 10 Opposes EU membership and campaigned No in 2026; wants an end to gold-plating EEA rules
- Centre Party: 7.5 of 10 Rejects EU membership and Protocol 35; wants independent review of staying in or leaving the EEA
- Viðreisn: 2.5 of 10 Seeks EU membership and the euro; campaigned Yes in the 2026 accession referendum
- Progressive Party: 6.5 of 10 Opposes EU membership and campaigned No in the 2026 referendum on resuming accession talks
- People's Party: 6.5 of 10 Opposes joining the EU and campaigned No, though it agreed to hold the 2026 referendum
Technology
- Social Democratic Alliance: 6.5 of 10 Backs its government's phone-free schools law and under-15 social media bill approved October 2026
- Independence Party: 3.5 of 10 2025 congress: abolish the Media Commission regulator, use AI across schools; no stated stance on under-15 bill
- Viðreisn: 5.5 of 10 Coalition partner behind the under-15 social media bill; party stresses innovation and AI in services
- Progressive Party: 6.5 of 10 Proposed a parliamentary resolution in 2025 raising the social media minimum age to 15
- People's Party: 6.5 of 10 Leader Inga Sæland, education minister, drafted the under-15 social media bill approved by cabinet October 2026
Recent polls
| Date | Pollster | S | D | M | C |
|---|
| 30 Jun | Gallup | 26.2 | 24.9 | 15.1 | 11.4 |
| 11 Jun | Maskína | 25.2 | 22.7 | 14.2 | 12.4 |
| 31 May | Gallup | 28.4 | 23.5 | 17.6 | 10.6 |
| 29 Apr | Gallup | 28.5 | 21.4 | 18.9 | 10.6 |
| 16 Apr | Maskína | 27.7 | 18.1 | 16.4 | 12.8 |
| 31 Mar | Gallup | 30 | 19.5 | 20.6 | 10 |
| 19 Mar | Maskína | 25.5 | 16.1 | 18.4 | 14 |
| 1 Mar | Gallup | 28.5 | 18.1 | 20.3 | 10.9 |
| 16 Feb | Prósent | 30.1 | 13.7 | 19.6 | 13.5 |
| 15 Feb | Maskína | 27.2 | 16.2 | 19 | 13.4 |
| 1 Feb | Gallup | 31.2 | 17.1 | 20.8 | 11.3 |
| 13 Jan | Maskína | 27 | 13.5 | 22.2 | 14.1 |
| 28 Dec 2025 | Gallup | 30.9 | 16.9 | 21.7 | 10.9 |
| 30 Nov 2025 | Gallup | 31.1 | 16.5 | 19.5 | 12.8 |