Estonia opinion polls
Parliamentary election By 7 Mar 2027, in 4 months.
Isamaa leads the polling average with 21.5%, 0.2 points ahead of Estonian Centre Party.
Average
Updated 34 minutes ago
KeskEstonian Centre Party
21.3
+0.8
SDESocial Democratic Party
17.5
+1.8
EKREConservative People's Party of Estonia
14.1
+0.6
RefEstonian Reform Party
12.8
−0.7
ParemParempoolsed
6.8
−1.3
Trend
IsamaaKeskSDEEKRERefParem
Stances
IsamaaKeskSDEEKRERefParem
Immigration
ExpandRestrictRemigration
Economy
Free marketState-directed
Abortion
Broad accessProtect unborn life
Marriage & family
Individual choiceTraditional
National culture
CosmopolitanPreserve heritage
Technology
Light-touchRein in Big Tech
Scores and reasons written by AI. Methodology
Why these scores
Immigration
- Isamaa: 5.5 of 10 Opposed May 2026 law easing foreign-worker entry as tripling the quota; pledges conservative migration policy
- Estonian Centre Party: 4.5 of 10 Programme: foreign workers leave when contracts end, earn above sector average; eased citizenship for pre-1991 residents
- Social Democratic Party: 4 of 10 Abstained, with five MPs voting against, on the May 2026 law easing entry of foreign workers
- Conservative People's Party of Estonia: 8 of 10 Wants recent immigrants sent home, a zero immigration quota and a halt to Ukrainian refugee intake
- Estonian Reform Party: 4 of 10 Passed the May 2026 law easing entry of skilled foreign workers; keeps the annual immigration quota
- Parempoolsed: 3.5 of 10 Supports immigration managed for Estonia's economic and security interests
Economy
- Isamaa: 3 of 10 2027 pledges: scrap the car tax, cut food VAT to 13%, negative supplementary budget, close climate ministry
- Estonian Centre Party: 6.5 of 10 2027 pledges: progressive income tax, bank windfall tax; programme adds inheritance and large-property taxes
- Social Democratic Party: 6 of 10 2027 pledges: progressive income tax and food VAT cut to 9%; proposed a bank windfall tax in 2024
- Conservative People's Party of Estonia: 4 of 10 Cut income tax and VAT, scrap car tax; wants a state bank and per-child tax cuts
- Estonian Reform Party: 2.5 of 10 Keeps flat income tax; abolished the 'tax hump' for 2026, but raised VAT and introduced a car tax
- Parempoolsed: 1.5 of 10 Would cut VAT to 20%, income tax to 18%, abolish minimum wage, privatise state firms
Christian identity
- Isamaa: 5 of 10 Worldview principles name Christian values and faith as foundations of its national conservatism
- Estonian Centre Party: 3.5 of 10 Programme contains no religious or church policy; no faith-based pledges found
- Social Democratic Party: 2 of 10 Secular platform; pushed gender-neutral marriage despite church objections
- Conservative People's Party of Estonia: 5.5 of 10 Mart Helme called EKRE a party of Christian traditions, seeking a Christian alliance with Fidesz (2019)
- Estonian Reform Party: 2 of 10 No religious policy; passed gender-neutral marriage over church objections
- Parempoolsed: 3 of 10 Programme has no religious policy; party stresses minimal state intervention in private lives
Abortion
- Isamaa: 3 of 10 Rejected EKRE's 2019 plan to defund abortions; no proposal to change the on-request law
- Estonian Centre Party: 2.5 of 10 Programme silent on abortion; no proposal to change Estonia's on-request law
- Social Democratic Party: 2 of 10 Supports Estonia's on-request abortion law; proposes no restrictions
- Conservative People's Party of Estonia: 5.5 of 10 Programme opposes abortion; 2019 plan to end health-insurance funding of non-medical abortions; no ban proposed
- Estonian Reform Party: 2 of 10 Defends current law: abortion on request to 12 weeks, covered by health insurance
- Parempoolsed: 2.5 of 10 No abortion policy found; no proposal to change Estonia's on-request law
Marriage & family
- Isamaa: 6.5 of 10 Wants constitutional man-woman marriage; voted to kill 2023 gender-neutral marriage bill; created parental pension
- Estonian Centre Party: 5 of 10 Six MPs voted to kill 2023 same-sex marriage bill, seven abstained; programme backs large-family benefits
- Social Democratic Party: 1.5 of 10 Formally backed same-sex marriage in 2020; co-passed the 2023 marriage equality law in coalition
- Conservative People's Party of Estonia: 8 of 10 Pushed a 2021 man-woman marriage referendum; voted to kill gender-neutral marriage; strongly pro-natal
- Estonian Reform Party: 2 of 10 Led passage of the gender-neutral marriage law in force since January 2024
- Parempoolsed: 3 of 10 Leader Perling backs same-sex adoption and takes no stance on marriage
National culture
- Isamaa: 7 of 10 Demands Estonian-only kindergartens and schools and stronger use of Estonian in public space
- Estonian Centre Party: 3.5 of 10 Only party voting against removing non-citizens' local votes (2025); programme protects minority rights
- Social Democratic Party: 4 of 10 Co-governed the switch to Estonian-only schooling; opposed stripping stateless residents' local votes
- Conservative People's Party of Estonia: 8.5 of 10 Programme defends Estonia as an 'ethno-state'; wants homosexual and multicultural 'propaganda' out of schools
- Estonian Reform Party: 5 of 10 Led the Estonian-only school transition and stripped Russian citizens of local voting rights
- Parempoolsed: 4.5 of 10 No language or culture programme found; backs immigration managed for economic and security interests
Subsidiarity
- Isamaa: 5.5 of 10 EPP member that defines the EU as a union of nation-states; pledges strong local government
- Estonian Centre Party: 5.5 of 10 Wants more municipal tax and budget powers; left ALDE over EU integration, applied to ECR in 2026
- Social Democratic Party: 3 of 10 Pro-EU PES member; MP Madis Kallas urges coordinated EU-level action against tech giants
- Conservative People's Party of Estonia: 7.5 of 10 Would veto EU laws centralising power in Brussels; wants Swiss-style citizen-initiated referendums
- Estonian Reform Party: 3 of 10 Renew Europe member backing deeper EU defence integration; no devolution plans
- Parempoolsed: 4.5 of 10 Backs EU single market and membership; wants power devolved to counties
Technology
- Isamaa: 3.5 of 10 MEP Ratas voted against an EU social media minimum age; pledges a bold state AI push
- Estonian Centre Party: 5 of 10 No platform or child-safety pledge found; programme backs cautious e-state and state action for balanced media
- Social Democratic Party: 6 of 10 MP Madis Kallas led a 2025 inquiry attacking the minister's opposition to EU social media age limits
- Conservative People's Party of Estonia: 3 of 10 Opposes hate-speech and online censorship rules; no child online safety proposals found
- Estonian Reform Party: 3.5 of 10 Its government declined the 2025 Jutland declaration and opposes EU social media age limits
- Parempoolsed: 2.5 of 10 Wants to limit state collection of private-life data; leader Perling opposes hate-speech restrictions
Recent polls
| Date | Pollster | Isamaa | Kesk | SDE | EKRE |
|---|
| 25 Oct | Norstat | 22.4 | 23.3 | 16.3 | 13.2 |
| 21 Oct | Emor | 19.4 | 20.6 | 20.4 | 13.8 |
| 18 Oct | Norstat | 22.3 | 23 | 17.6 | 14.5 |
| 12 Oct | Norstat | 25.1 | 22.3 | 16.8 | 12.2 |
| 8 Oct | Turu-uuringute AS | 19 | 21 | 14 | 18 |
| 3 Oct | Norstat | 21.8 | 22.2 | 15.1 | 14.9 |
| 27 Sept | Norstat | 27.6 | 19.1 | 14.4 | 14.2 |
| 23 Sept | Emor | 23.8 | 16.9 | 17.4 | 13 |
| 19 Sept | Norstat | 23.7 | 23 | 14.7 | 15.3 |
| 13 Sept | Norstat | 21.6 | 22 | 14 | 12.5 |
| 7 Sept | Turu-uuringute AS | 22 | 21 | 15 | 16 |
| 29 Aug | Norstat | 24.1 | 20.4 | 19.1 | 11.8 |
| 23 Aug | Norstat | 25.9 | 23.6 | 13.9 | 11.3 |
| 15 Aug | Norstat | 22.3 | 21.2 | 14.4 | 13.9 |