Lithuania election polls 2028
Parliamentary election 8 Oct 2028, in 23 months.
Homeland Union – Lithuanian Christian Democrats leads the polling average with 21.1%, 5.7 points ahead of Social Democratic Party of Lithuania.
Average
Updated 34 minutes ago
TS–LKDHomeland Union – Lithuanian Christian Democrats
21.1
+1.3
LSDPSocial Democratic Party of Lithuania
15.4
−0.5
NADawn of Nemunas
12.9
+0.4
LVŽSLithuanian Farmers and Greens Union
12.0
+0.3
LSLiberals' Movement
10.0
−0.4
DSVLUnion of Democrats "For Lithuania"
6.2
−0.8
NSNational Alliance
5.9
+0.5
Trend
TS–LKDLSDPNALVŽSLSDSVL
Stances
TS–LKDLSDPNALVŽSLSDSVL
Immigration
ExpandRestrictRemigration
Economy
Free marketState-directed
Christian identity1 unplaced
Abortion1 unplaced
Broad accessProtect unborn life
Marriage & family
Individual choiceTraditional
National culture1 unplaced
CosmopolitanPreserve heritage
Technology2 unplaced
Light-touchRein in Big Tech
Scores and reasons written by AI. Methodology
Why these scores
Immigration
- Homeland Union – Lithuanian Christian Democrats: 5 of 10 In government built 550 km Belarus border fence, legalised pushbacks and returned most irregular arrivals
- Social Democratic Party of Lithuania: 4 of 10 2025 programme: EU common asylum policy with solidarity, tougher EU external borders, protection for refugees
- Dawn of Nemunas: 6 of 10 Žemaitaitis urged stricter pushbacks of migrants at the Belarus border; no detailed migration programme
- Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union: 6 of 10 2024 programme: halt 'flawed immigration policy', tightly cap numbers, reject EU quotas, prevent cultural enclaves
- Liberals' Movement: 3 of 10 2024 programme: scrap foreign-worker quotas, labour-market test and shortage lists; immigration as opportunity
- Union of Democrats "For Lithuania": 4.5 of 10 2026: wants data-based migration quotas, integration requirements, anti-abuse rules; rejects policy driven by cheap labour
Economy
- Homeland Union – Lithuanian Christian Democrats: 3.5 of 10 Kept public debt among EU's lowest in government; 2024 manifesto pledged tax changes to reduce income inequality
- Social Democratic Party of Lithuania: 6 of 10 Passed 2025 tax reform: three progressive income-tax brackets and higher corporate tax to fund defence
- Dawn of Nemunas: 5.5 of 10 2024 pledges: state bank 'Vytis', buy back Ignitis shares, energy price controls, two-year tax-change moratorium
- Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union: 6.5 of 10 Halt privatisation of state firms and health system, state bank, 13th pension, reduced VAT on food
- Liberals' Movement: 2.5 of 10 Opposes Social Democrat tax rises and new spending commitments; prefers cutting shadow economy to higher taxes
- Union of Democrats "For Lithuania": 5.5 of 10 Backs guaranteed minimum income; its energy minister kept discounted electricity prices for vulnerable households into 2027
Christian identity
- Homeland Union – Lithuanian Christian Democrats: 4.5 of 10 Manifesto names respect for human dignity from a Christian worldview as a founding pillar; no church-state agenda
- Social Democratic Party of Lithuania: 2 of 10 Programme: Lithuania is a secular state; no religious community may gain special influence over decisions
- Dawn of Nemunas: 4.5 of 10 Self-described Christian-oriented party, but its 2024 pledges contain no church-state or religious-education measures
- Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union: 6 of 10 Campaigns on Christian values; programme protects parents' right to religious upbringing; shares faction with Christian Families Alliance
- Liberals' Movement: 1.5 of 10 Secular liberal party; programme seeks state recognition for pagan Romuva community, equal treatment of faiths
Abortion
- Homeland Union – Lithuanian Christian Democrats: 3.5 of 10 Divided: some MPs backed 2025 reproductive-health bill, Christian-democrat wing opposes; no restriction proposed
- Social Democratic Party of Lithuania: 2 of 10 Programme opposes any abortion ban; MP Vėsaitė's 2025 bill makes abortion a free, statutory right; faction split
- Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union: 5.5 of 10 Programme: respect human life from conception; its faction opposed 2025 bill making abortion free; no ban proposed
- Liberals' Movement: 1.5 of 10 Leader Čmilytė-Nielsen backed 2025 bill enshrining abortion as a human right; programme wants reproductive-health law
- Union of Democrats "For Lithuania": 3.5 of 10 MP Širinskienė and Speaker Skvernelis opposed 2025 bill making abortion free; no restriction of current law proposed
Marriage & family
- Homeland Union – Lithuanian Christian Democrats: 4.5 of 10 38 of 50 MPs backed the 2022 civil-union bill; leader Kasčiūnas was among seven who voted against
- Social Democratic Party of Lithuania: 2 of 10 Programme: state must recognise same-sex couples' family relations and regulate legal gender change
- Dawn of Nemunas: 6 of 10 Pledges to foster traditional family; objected to partnership bill in 2024 coalition programme; leader opposes Istanbul Convention
- Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union: 7.5 of 10 Marriage as sole man-woman family institution; opposes any partnership law; backs constitutional family-definition referendum
- Liberals' Movement: 1.5 of 10 Programme: pass civil partnership law, protect gender identity in equality law, IVF for single women
- Union of Democrats "For Lithuania": 5.5 of 10 Most MPs voted against 2022 civil-union bill; Speaker Skvernelis kept it off the agenda in 2025
National culture
- Homeland Union – Lithuanian Christian Democrats: 5.5 of 10 Manifesto: more Lithuanian-language teaching in minority schools, historical-memory policy, 'healthy patriotism'
- Social Democratic Party of Lithuania: 3 of 10 Civic Lithuanian identity; programme allows minority-language signs and official replies in minority areas
- Dawn of Nemunas: 7 of 10 Leader says party is right-wing on language and national identity; opposes dual citizenship, would publish KGB collaborator lists
- Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union: 6.5 of 10 Programme: strengthen state-language status, preserve Lithuanian identity and traditions, require migrant language integration
- Liberals' Movement: 2 of 10 Programme wants multicultural identity 'not only recognised but actively promoted'
Subsidiarity
- Homeland Union – Lithuanian Christian Democrats: 3 of 10 Backs stronger common EU defence; its Andrius Kubilius serves as EU defence commissioner
- Social Democratic Party of Lithuania: 2.5 of 10 Programme seeks qualified majority voting in EU foreign policy, bigger EU budget, European defence union
- Dawn of Nemunas: 6.5 of 10 Halt EU Green Deal farm measures, joining Patriots for Europe; end centralising services, easier referendums
- Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union: 6.5 of 10 Sits with ECR; would avoid treaties reducing sovereignty, restore counties and hand functions to municipalities
- Liberals' Movement: 2.5 of 10 Renew member; programme backs deeper EU integration and qualified majority voting in foreign policy
- Union of Democrats "For Lithuania": 3.5 of 10 Pro-EU; European Greens member, leader Sinkevičius a former EU commissioner; backs municipal decentralisation
Technology
- Homeland Union – Lithuanian Christian Democrats: 6 of 10 MP Ulbinaitė's 2026 bill bars under-16s from social media with mandatory technical age checks
- Social Democratic Party of Lithuania: 5 of 10 Programme backs AI use in government alongside laws regulating AI development; no platform-specific agenda
- Liberals' Movement: 4.5 of 10 Programme: work with tech firms to remove disinformation from platforms; sees AI mainly as opportunity
- Union of Democrats "For Lithuania": 5 of 10 2026 platform-work bill lets workers contest algorithmic decisions, in line with EU directive; no social-media stance
Recent polls
| Date | Pollster | TS–LKD | LSDP | NA | LVŽS |
|---|
| 5 Oct | Baltijos tyrimai | 20.7 | 16.3 | 14.1 | 13.9 |
| 26 Sept | Spinter tyrimai | 24.5 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 10.5 |
| 31 Aug | Baltijos tyrimai | 17.4 | 17 | 12.4 | 14.3 |
| 31 Jul | Baltijos tyrimai | 19.3 | 15.2 | 15.3 | 11.6 |
| 28 Jul | Spinter tyrimai | 22.9 | 14.3 | 12 | 7.9 |
| 30 Jun | Baltijos tyrimai | 16.7 | 16.1 | 14 | 13.6 |
| 28 Jun | Spinter tyrimai | 24.4 | 16.9 | 8.4 | 8.1 |
| 31 May | Baltijos tyrimai | 16.9 | 17.9 | 12.4 | 14.4 |
| 30 May | Spinter tyrimai | 23.2 | 13.3 | 9.4 | 8.5 |
| 7 May | Baltijos tyrimai | 16.7 | 18.1 | 16.5 | 14.3 |
| 28 Apr | Spinter tyrimai | 24.8 | 11.9 | 10.3 | 13.3 |
| 30 Mar | Baltijos tyrimai | 18.3 | 17.4 | 12.6 | 12.8 |
| 28 Mar | Spinter tyrimai | 23.3 | 13.6 | 9.1 | 8.5 |
| 2 Mar | Baltijos tyrimai | 15.9 | 17.7 | 13.1 | 13.2 |