Sweden election polls 2030
Parliamentary election 8 Sept 2030, in 4 years.
Swedish Social Democratic Party leads the polling average with 27.1%, 2.9 points ahead of Moderate Party.
Average
Updated 34 minutes ago
SSwedish Social Democratic Party
27.1
+1.4
MModerate Party
24.1
+1.4
SDSweden Democrats
17.5
−1.9
KDChristian Democrats
5.5
−0.1
Trend
SMSDVMPC
Stances
SMSDVMPC
Immigration
ExpandRestrictRemigration
Economy
Free marketState-directed
Abortion
Broad accessProtect unborn life
Marriage & family
Individual choiceTraditional
National culture
CosmopolitanPreserve heritage
Technology
Light-touchRein in Big Tech
Scores and reasons written by AI. Methodology
Why these scores
Immigration
- Swedish Social Democratic Party: 4.5 of 10 Wants strict migration at EU minimum levels, labour-market tests, and establishment permits replacing permanent residence
- Moderate Party: 6 of 10 Led Tidö government: asylum cut to EU minimum, deportation for poor conduct, stricter citizenship rules
- Sweden Democrats: 8 of 10 2026 manifesto: convert permanent residence permits to temporary, remigration grants for citizens, revoke citizenship for crime
- Left Party: 1.5 of 10 Wants permanent residence for refugees, priority for family reunification and generous asylum rules
- Green Party: 1.5 of 10 Wants permanent permits as the main rule, never revoked, stronger family reunification, stop deporting settled people
- Centre Party: 3 of 10 Wants easier labour migration, protected asylum and family reunification, permanent permits kept permanent
Economy
- Swedish Social Democratic Party: 6 of 10 Pledges ban on profits in schools, temporary bank tax, higher child benefit, temporary 6% food VAT
- Moderate Party: 3 of 10 Led Tidö budgets cutting income tax on work and pensions; halved food VAT temporarily from 2026
- Sweden Democrats: 4.5 of 10 Wants state-run healthcare and unemployment insurance, cheaper dental care, lower fuel and electricity taxes; welfare citizens-first
- Left Party: 7.5 of 10 Wants profits banned in welfare, higher taxes on top earners, capital and big firms, shorter working week
- Green Party: 6.5 of 10 Wants higher taxes on top earners, capital and large fortunes, 1% of GDP investment target, welfare profits curbed
- Centre Party: 3 of 10 Wants lower taxes on work and hiring, VAT cuts on services, green tax shift, strict budget rules
Christian identity
- Swedish Social Democratic Party: 2 of 10 Secular welfare party; has long pushed a stop on new religious independent schools
- Moderate Party: 3 of 10 Wants no new religious independent schools; no policy giving Christianity a public or legal role
- Sweden Democrats: 5 of 10 Wants Church of Sweden's special heritage status kept; proposes a state centre against political Islam
- Left Party: 1 of 10 Wants religious and profit-making independent schools abolished; secular programme with no religious role in the state
- Green Party: 2 of 10 Congress voted in 2019 to ban religious independent schools; stresses equal religious freedom
- Centre Party: 2 of 10 Agreed in the 2019 January Agreement to stop new religious independent schools; no public role for church
Abortion
- Swedish Social Democratic Party: 2 of 10 Defends free abortion to week 18 and backs writing abortion rights into the constitution
- Moderate Party: 2 of 10 Wants abortion right in the constitution; its government proposed allowing abortion pills at home from 2027
- Sweden Democrats: 3 of 10 Has said it accepts the current law: abortion on request to week 18, later by approval
- Left Party: 1.5 of 10 Feminist party defending free abortion and backing constitutional protection of the right
- Green Party: 1.5 of 10 Defends free abortion and backs constitutional protection of abortion rights
- Centre Party: 2 of 10 Supports the current law: abortion on request to week 18
Marriage & family
- Swedish Social Democratic Party: 2 of 10 Self-described feminist party; backed 2024 easier legal gender change law and earmarked parental leave
- Moderate Party: 3.5 of 10 Pledges doubling shared parental 'double days' to 120 and publicly funded sibling IVF attempts
- Sweden Democrats: 5 of 10 Wants families to divide parental leave freely; accepts same-sex marriage, opposed 2024 gender-change law
- Left Party: 1 of 10 Feminist party; supported 2024 easier legal gender change and full LGBT equality in family law
- Green Party: 0.5 of 10 Wants legal gender by self-declaration, a third legal gender, and more than two legal guardians per child
- Centre Party: 1.5 of 10 Socially liberal; supported 2024 easier legal gender change and equal treatment of all family forms
National culture
- Swedish Social Democratic Party: 3 of 10 Civic integration focus: language requirements for preschool and elder-care staff, upgraded Swedish-for-immigrants courses
- Moderate Party: 5.5 of 10 Government created a Swedish cultural canon; wants it on a digital platform and used in schools
- Sweden Democrats: 8 of 10 2026 manifesto: end 'failed multicultural experiment', national public veil and hijab ban, protect Swedish language
- Left Party: 2 of 10 Programme built on anti-racism; wants the monarchy replaced by a republic
- Green Party: 2 of 10 Stresses minority languages, national minorities and Sámi rights alongside Swedish language and heritage
- Centre Party: 3 of 10 Integration through jobs and Swedish from day one; no cultural-assimilation demands in its programme
Subsidiarity
- Swedish Social Democratic Party: 3.5 of 10 Pro-EU member of PES; wants greater state responsibility for schools, keeps the krona for now
- Moderate Party: 4.5 of 10 Pro-EU single-market party; wants less over-implementation of EU rules, national control over forest policy
- Sweden Democrats: 6 of 10 Rejects the euro and EU over-implementation, no exit demand; wants state takeover of schools and healthcare
- Left Party: 6 of 10 Dropped its EU-exit demand in 2024 but still opposes the euro and further powers for Brussels
- Green Party: 4.5 of 10 Calls itself EU-positive, wants deeper defence cooperation but rejects a supranational EU army
- Centre Party: 4 of 10 Wants deeper EU cooperation and a euro inquiry, yet national control of tax and social policy, local power
Technology
- Swedish Social Democratic Party: 7 of 10 Proposes at least a 15-year social media age limit enforced by strict ID checks, sanctions on platforms
- Moderate Party: 6 of 10 Kristersson wants a 15-year social media age limit with strict checks; warned EU AI Act stifles innovation
- Sweden Democrats: 5 of 10 Wants screen-free schools and a classroom phone ban; awaited the inquiry before taking a social media age-limit stance
- Left Party: 6 of 10 Said yes to legislating a social media age limit (April 2026); no detailed AI programme found
- Green Party: 5.5 of 10 Wants AI transparency on training data, curbs on Big Tech power; undecided on social media age limit
- Centre Party: 5 of 10 Backs a legislated social media age limit but rejects BankID checks; wants innovation-friendly AI via national commission
Recent polls
| Date | Pollster | S | M | SD | V |
|---|
| 25 Oct | Indikator | 27 | 26.3 | 16.3 | 7.6 |
| 25 Oct | Ipsos | 27 | 24 | 19 | 8 |
| 11 Oct | Novus | 25.9 | 23.9 | 18 | 7.2 |
| 11 Oct | Verian | 28.5 | 22.3 | 17.2 | 7.8 |
| 27 Sept | Ipsos | 28 | 22 | 17 | 8 |
| 25 Sept | Sentio | 25.7 | 22.7 | 19.4 | 10 |
| 13 Sept | 2026 election | 28 | 19.9 | 17.5 | 8.4 |
| 13 Sept | Novus exitpoll | 28.4 | 17.5 | 18.5 | 6.9 |
| 13 Sept | SVT/Valu exitpoll | 28.4 | 18.1 | 17.2 | 8 |
| 11 Sept | Novus | 28.6 | 18.1 | 19.5 | 6.6 |
| 11 Sept | Demoskop | 29.7 | 16.7 | 19 | 7.5 |
| 11 Sept | Infostat | 26.3 | 17.3 | 20.2 | 8.2 |
| 10 Sept | Ipsos | 27.4 | 18.3 | 18.8 | 7.6 |
| 10 Sept | Verian | 27.6 | 15.8 | 18.1 | 7.7 |